Iqlid

ܐܩܠܝܕܐ | إقليد | κλεῖς

Trump’s Presidency is Delaying the Inevitable

The people have spoken. And they elected Donald Trump as the 45th president of the United States of America. Despite winning the popular vote Hillary Clinton lost a much anticipated historic election. Adding insult to injury the Republicans now have full control over Congress as well, and will likely bring about a conservative majority in the Supreme Court. As regressive and disturbing as this may all seem, let us not forget that The pendulum swings widely between liberal and conservative, Democrat and Republican almost every election cycle. Its a hard pill to swallow, but life goes on.

But this is bigger than the FBI’s meddling or losing on account Clinton’s e-mail scandal, and maybe even bigger than the Democratic National Committee sabotaging Bernie Sander’s candidacy. As the DNC, liberals and the indeed the world come to terms with this seismic step backwards in American politics, I offer these preliminary thoughts.

On November 9, 2016 the US caught up — as it were  — to the tidal wave of anti-globalization, anti-immigration and white (often Christian) nationalism that has swept through other democracies. The example of Brexit in the United Kingdom, the rise of Marie Le Pen’s National Front in France, the resurgence of NeoNazi groups in Germany, prime minister Victor Orban’s promotion of “Christian identity” in Hungary and even the Likud renewed nationalism in Israel — all suggest a global phenomenon. The reason’s for ‘global anti-globalization’ are many — the Euro-crisis, bank bailouts, collapsing oil prices, class warfare, perpetual war, the Arab Spring, ISIS, and on and on.

trump-dailysabah

(Dailysabah.com)

In the US the success of the nation’s first African American president stoked deep seated obstructionism — even racism — within the Republican party leadership, who tried to sabotage his presidency for eight years. Since 9/11 2001 the GOP has moved further and further to the right, reinforcing anti-globalization through its invasion of Iraq, courting the Tea Party, “birther” movement” and culminating in Trump’s hate speech. Much of the GOP animosity was directed against Obama’s African race and Muslim ancestry. Furthermore, America has lost most of its manufacturing jobs (some outsourced; others outmoded) and its growing Latino population will be the majority by 2044. Is it any surprise, therefore, that Trump called for building a wall across the Mexican border and banning Muslims from entering the the country?

As the renowned social scientist Zygmunt Bauman expressed about the world’s historical direction, there is a “crisis of humanity” and ‘no one is in charge.’ Across the world people have seen their standard of living decline, or worse they have suffered revolution, war and displacement unseen before World War II. History also teaches us that economic protest can, and frequently does, manifest itself in the form of nationalist xenophobia . The demographics of the world are changing. In other words predatory neoliberalism, ongoing wars in the Middle East and the global refugee and immigration crises are not the only change at hand. In the case of the US there are more and more brown and black people thriving — legally —  around a slowly dwindling caucasian population. There is no going back; and the changing face of America and the world is unfolding before our eyes. Trump’s win is merely delaying the inevitable.

On racism I leave you with the words of Van Jones.

There are serious — even disastrous — prospects of this Trump presidency — losing face before the world, dismantling healthcare for the poor and cutting taxes for the rich, and emboldening white supremacy. However, just as the media was correct to chasten Trump for calling democratic elections “rigged,” we have little choice but to accept the result of such and election, meticulously hold Trump accountable and live to fight another day.

Change is inevitable. This is a rancorous wake up call to change our polity. Will Bernie Sanders, Jill Stein or another third party candidate have a chance in 2020? Will the two party system ever open up? Will our leaders stop pandering to money and start serving the people? Will old white men stop trying to forcibly control or demonize women, LGBTs, African Americans, Latinos and non-white immigrants? Will the US invest in itself and stop (over)policing the world? These are not supposed to be partisan issues. One can only hope that Trump and his GOP appointees will cause the least damage.

When The Largest Oil Exporter Quits the Game (Forbes)

My latest article now on Forbes


University of Houston Energy Fellows

Emran El-Badawi, Program Director and Associate Professor of Middle Eastern Studies

oil-pumps
(Forbes)

When The Largest Oil Exporter Quits The Game

“We have a case of oil addiction in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia which is dangerous.” So says Muhammad ibn Salman Al-Saud, deputy crown prince and minister of defense in his highly publicized April 25, 2015 interview with Al-Arabiyya. He continued, “We should treat oil as an investment, not a primary or absolute commodity.”

This is precisely the impulse behind the “Saudi Vision 2030.” The plan was crafted by Prince Muhammad – a young but shrewd visionary in his own right – and its aim is to wean the world’s largest oil exporter of its ‘dangerous addiction’ by 2030.

The 15-year plan comes at a time of historic economic and political instability. Since June 2014 oil prices that typically had been over $100 per barrel fell to below $50 and have not recovered. Going from “hero to zero” cut over 350 thousand energy sector jobs in just one year – 120,000 jobs in the U.S. alone – and starved the Venezuelan economy, literally. Meanwhile much of the Middle East still suffers from war, popular demonstrations and renewed government crackdowns since the so-called “Arab Spring” of 2010/2011.

The Impact of Oil on MENA Societies

Studying the Saudi 2030 Oil Plan, its political context in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, and the global energy market became part of my mission as a researcher and educator at the University of Houston. I piloted an interdisciplinary course last summer for UH Energy and the C.T. Bauer College of Business on “Oil, Religion and the Middle East.” In this course, students of engineering, political science and the humanities came together to discuss the impact of oil on MENA societies. We examined in detail:

1. The “oil curse” and the phenomenon of the “rentier state”
2. How the oil and gas sector shapes cultural and social norms
3. Initiatives promoting transparency, corporate social responsibility (CSR) and environmental sustainability.

And what does religion have to do with oil in this region? Everything. Or as Prince Muhammad summarizes, “Our constitution has become scripture, tradition and oil!”

King Salman Al-Saud remains the “custodian of the two holy mosques.” His Kingdom is simultaneously the most powerful member state of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as well as the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC).

In other words, Saudi Arabia controls global oil as much as it does modern Islam. Therein lies the gravity of this economic plan.

Vision 2030: Growth, Diversification and Investment

Currently Saudi Arabia remains the largest global exporter of oil at about 360 million barrels per year; it is home to the largest proven oil reserves at almost 260-270 billion barrels (18 percent of global reserves). So how does the leader of the pack quit at the top of his game? Among the plan’s details are three sweeping economic changes:

  1. Selling 5 percent of government-run Saudi Aramco in the largest IPO in history
  2. Reducing government subsidies and introducing taxes for the first time
  3. Establishing a $2 trillion national investment fund

Valued at several trillion dollars Saudi Aramco remains the largest corporate entity in the world – state-run or otherwise. Aramco’s precise value is a state secret, which is a problem for any investor. So the plan calls for increased transparency. The size and importance of the company mean the Saudis are unlikely to give up the strategic value of oil itself. They might instead turn over logistics or petrochemicals to the private sector.

For an investment deal this big there are skeptics as well as optimists– and justifiably so. In sum, a successful IPO is critical to the plan’s execution … and its credibility.

Reducing government subsidies is a must. Since its founding almost a century ago the Saudi welfare state has given generous lifelong subsidies to its citizens. There are no taxes to speak of, and immigrant workers make up 30 percent of the general population. Government hand outs and foreign labor are part of Saudi culture. This might explain why the government has begun to tax immigrant workers but not Saudi citizens – a highly problematic start. How will imposing income, property or utility taxes affect the demographics of the kingdom? What ripple effects will this have on GDP, labor laws, political reform? Only time will tell.

When it comes to his investment, Prince Muhammad is on more solid ground. He claims the “Saudi mindset is a financial mindset” – and he is right. The Saudi central bank holds $117 Billion in US treasury bonds – surprisingly low given its sheer wealth. On the private sector front, the billionaire Al-Waleed ibn Talal, a member of the Al-Saud royal family, has bailed out everyone from CitiGroup to GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump. This is to say nothing of domestic Saudi investment in infrastructure, healthcare and retail – which are all state of the art. In this vein a $2 trillion investment fund may have a chance of diverting resources from oil towards realizing the prince’s dream to make Saudi Arabia a “global investment powerhouse.”

The plan also calls for diversifying Saudi Arabia’s economy – currently 90 percent oil driven. What other industries can flourish in the desert? The plan aims to spur growth in natural gas, real estate, mining, tourism and other sectors. The plan also calls for creating jobs for both men and women, improving people’s quality of life and – given the government’s religious mandate – improving the country’s morals while empowering its global Islamic prestige. Overall, the stated goals of Vision 2030 are ambitious bordering on inconceivable. But they are steps in the right direction.

Why Now?

For energy economists and historians – even the skeptics among them – the 2030 Saudi Oil Plan is long overdue. It represents a milestone in global energy and geopolitics: using oil wealth to divest from oil. It also comes in the wake of the Kyoto Protocol of 2005, Paris Agreement of 2015, China’s “five year plan” to reduce air pollution and other concrete efforts by the world’s largest economies to cut emissions in response to climate change. By framing the plan as a “vision” and underscoring large government projects, the Saudis are doing business the “Arab way.” President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi’s “New Suez Canal” has been the region’s most recent marvel, although revenues have been too low to help Egypt’s struggling economy. But the Saudis are thinking much bigger than the Egyptians anyway. It was Prince Muhammad ibn Rashid Al-Maktoum’s 2004 economic development plan, “My Vision,” that transformed Dubai into the opulent global city-state it is today. (The Saudis and Emiratis are also competing for who can build the tallest building in the world – an entirely different matter!)

Saudi Arabia is also fighting a number of foreign as well as domestic battles. Quarrels over succession within the Al-Saud family have persisted for years; Saudi women are increasingly active in their fight for equality and the nation’s youth are increasingly marginalized and open to radical influences. The kingdom is mired in wars in both Yemen and Syria, draining a record $100 billion out of the Saudi economy between 2015 and 2016 alone.

In both wars its arch nemesis is Iran, with whom U.S. president Barack Obama has made a deal. To complicate matters further, today’s record low oil prices are the result of economic warfare between Saudi crude and U.S. shale. In this context, Vision 2030 means the Saudis are desperately getting rid of a depreciating commodity – some analysts say bursting the “oil bubble” – and adjusting their economy for a future where oil may be overtaken by alternative fuel sources. That, however, is a subject for another day.


Dr. Emran El-Badawi is Program Director and Associate Professor of Middle Eastern Studies in the Department of Modern and Classical Languages, at the College of Liberal Arts and Social Sciences, University of Houston. His research examines liberalism, Islamism and the impact of oil and gas on MENA societies. His work includes advising government, legal and business communities on Middle East related projects.

UH Energy is the University of Houston’s hub for energy education, research and technology incubation, working to shape the energy future and forge new business approaches in the energy industry.

Islam & the Performing Arts

I had the pleasure of being part of the INTERSECTIONS team, 2013-2015. As two year program funded by the Building Bridges program at the Dorris Duke Charitable Foundation and hosted by the University of Houston’ Cynthia Woods Mitchell Center for the Arts it hosted renowned artists from the Islamic world. Thanks to Maya Zbib, Slavs and Tatars, eL Seed, and Ibrahim Quraishi for teaching us all about modern Islam and the performing arts at a time when our world desperately needs their knowledge, compassion and beauty.

 

You can sample INTERSECTIONS by watching this video.

Das Glaubensbekenntnis des Gesandten (The Messenger’s Creed Q 2:285)

The following text/audio is a German translation on Q 2:285 to a longer English article on Church canon law and qur’anic law to be published in the near future. Enjoy!

 

Sure 2 Vers 285Das Glaubensbekenntnis des Gesandten

Woran glauben Muslime? Ähnlich wie im Christentum drücken sie das in kurzen, prägnanten Glaubensbekenntnissen aus. Das bekannteste ist die Schahada. Sie lautet: “Es gibt keinen Gott außer Gott und Mohammed ist der Gesandte Gottes.” Es gibt aber noch mehr Glaubensbekenntnisse im Islam.

Von Dr. Emran El-Badawi, Universität Houston, Texas, USA

“Der Gesandte glaubt an das, was ihm von seinem Herrn herabgesandt, und auch die Gläubigen: Ein jeder glaubt an Gott und seine Engel, seine Bücher und seine Gesandten – wir unterscheiden zwischen keinem seiner Gesandten! Sie sprechen: ‚Wir hören und gehorchen! Vergib uns, unser Herr!‘ Und: ‚Zu dir hin ist das Ziel.‘”

Auf diesen Koranabschnitt bezieht sich das, was hier das Glaubensbekenntnis des Gesandten genannt wird.

Teaserbox zur Sendereihe "Koran erklärt" im Deutschlandfunk

Die Sendereihe Koran erklärt als Multimediapräsentation

In der späteren islamischen Tradition erklärt das Hadith-Schrifttum, also die Bücher zu den Überlieferungen Mohammeds, die doktrinären Elemente dieses Verses zu den Grundsätzen des Glaubens – arabisch: arkân al-îmân.

Das sind Gott, die Engel, die Heiligen Schriften, die Gesandten und die Vorherbestimmung. Offenkundig gibt es eine Entwicklung vom “urmuslimischen” Glauben auf Basis des Korans hin zu einem feststehenden Gebilde des “muslimischen” Glaubens auf Basis des Hadith.

Jahrhunderte nach der Offenbarung entstand die Auslegungsliteratur zum Koran. Sie liefert wertvolle kleine Hinweise auf den intertextuellen und historischen Hintergrund von Sure 2 Vers 285. Aber sie erläutert wenig zu den rechtlichen, philologischen und hagiographischen Details.

Dieser Vers ist einer von mehreren Glaubensbekenntnissen im Koran. Um die Doktrin zu bekräftigen, benutzt er die klar umrissene Terminologie der christlichen Glaubensbekenntnisse – und zwar so, wie sie am Vorabend des Islams vorgetragen wurden; oder allgemeiner gesprochen, wie sie in der Spätantike etwa vom 2. bis 7. Jahrhundert kursierten. Hören wir Auszüge aus dem Nicäanischen Glaubensbekenntnis:

“Wir glauben an den einen Gott,
den Vater, den Allmächtigen,
der alles geschaffen hat, Himmel und Erde,
die sichtbare und die unsichtbare Welt.
Und an den einen Herrn Jesus Christus,
Gottes eingeborenen Sohn,
aus dem Vater geboren vor aller Zeit:
….
Wir glauben an den Heiligen Geist,
der Herr ist und lebendig macht,
…..
Wir bekennen die eine Taufe zur Vergebung der Sünden.
Wir erwarten die Auferstehung der Toten
und das Leben der kommenden Welt.
Amen.”

Ähnlich klingt das heute verbreitetere apostolische Glaubensbekenntnis. So wie das Glaubensbekenntnis des Gesandten bezeugen das nicäanische und apostolische Glaubensbekenntnis erstens den Glauben an Gott, zweitens den Glauben an die Vergebung der Sünden und drittens den Glauben an die Auferstehung und das Leben nach dem Tod.

Wenig überraschend widerspricht das Bekenntnis des Gesandten in Bezug auf Jesus Christus und den Heiligen Geist. Die Menschwerdung Gottes und die Trinitätslehre werden zurückgewiesen. Ganz eindeutig heißt es: “Wir unterscheiden zwischen keinem seiner Gesandten!”

Ferner werden das nicäanische wie das apostolische Bekenntnis als Akt einer gemeinschaftlichen Rede verkündet. Es heißt: “WIR glauben an….” Darin spiegeln sich die Ursprünge in den Konzilen und Synoden der Ostkirchen wider.

Dieser Brauch wird im Bekenntnis des Gesandten und dessen Abwandlungen bewahrt. Hier heißt es: “WIR” beziehungsweise “ALLE glauben an….” Gelehrte argumentierten, bestimmte Koran-Passagen seien in Form theologischer Glaubensbekenntnisse ausgedrückt worden, um die christlichen Bekenntnisse, wo sie Trinität und Menschwerdung umfassen, zu widerlegen. Es kann gut sein, dass die vier Verse aus Sure 112 mit Namen “Das reine Gottesbekenntnis” eine solche “Widerlegung” darstellen.

Wohingegen einige längere und diskursivere Koran-Passagen ebenfalls in Form theologischer Bekenntnisse in den Suren 2, 3 und 4 gut als Bestätigung der Doktrin dienen können. Wie in dieser Sendung gezeigt, ist der erläuterte Vers eine dieser Bestätigungen.

Porträt von Emran El-Badawi vor schwarzem Hintergrund. (prov.)

Emran El-Badawi ist Programmdirektor der Middle Eastern Studies und lehrt als Associate Professor. (prov.)

Die Audio-Version musste aus Gründen der Sendezeit leicht gekürzt werden.